Gold climbs as the dollar softens

Gold prices rose on Monday, climbing toward the upper boundary of the near-term range (\$3320–\$3377), following a rebound after last Thursday’s rejection at the top of the rising daily Ichimoku cloud.

The daily cloud, which has underpinned price action since January, continues to provide strong technical support, repeatedly containing corrective dips below the record high of \$3500.

Monday’s gains were primarily driven by a weaker U.S. dollar. However, safe-haven demand also remains firm amid growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, especially as President Trump’s August 1 deadline approaches. With countries like the EU and Japan yet to finalize agreements, the threat of imposing 30% tariffs on all imports from these regions persists.

Meanwhile, traders are closely watching commentary from Federal Reserve officials ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting for clues on future policy direction.

Fed policymakers have previously indicated a hold on interest rates after inflation rose unexpectedly in June. The risk of further inflation due to potential new import tariffs could reinforce their cautious stance—despite pressure from President Trump, who continues to call for a rate cut to 1% to stimulate investment and growth.

Technically, the latest advance breached the upper boundary of a smaller triangle pattern on the daily chart near \$3365, opening the way toward key resistance at \$3373–\$3377 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the \$3452–\$3246 decline and July 16 spike high). A clear break above this zone would generate a bullish signal, targeting \$3400–\$3403 (psychological level and 76.4% Fibonacci of the broader \$3452–\$3310 move).

Alternatively, failure to decisively break the triangle’s upper trendline would keep gold confined to an extended, yet tightening, consolidation range.

Res: 3373; 3377; 3388; 3400
Sup: 3350; 3330; 3320; 3315