GOLD – bulls step up pressure on the $5,000 milestone

In one of my daily briefings earlier this week, I was asked whether gold is likely to reach $5,000. My response was that this could happen as early as today (Friday) or sometime next week.

Given the persistently supportive conditions, it is not difficult to anticipate near-term action. The combination of factors driving the metal’s price over the past year has not improved; instead, it continues to deteriorate, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets.

Gold is set to close the week with strong gains of around 7%, and it is on track for a record monthly rise in January of nearly 15%, extending a steep rally into its sixth consecutive month.

Although the price has approached the $5,000 mark, where it is likely to encounter significant resistance—both due to the psychological importance of the level and the strongly overbought conditions across longer timeframes—bulls have maintained control so far.

Heightened uncertainty around worsening geopolitical and economic developments keeps investors cautious, with the focus remaining tilted to the upside.

Today’s modest pullbacks held above the initial support at $4,900, despite strong negative technical signals and expectations of increased profit-taking toward the end of the week.

In my view, the most likely scenario is an extended and narrow consolidation phase before a final push toward $5,000. A decisive break above this level could trigger a stronger acceleration higher, as many stop orders are positioned just above it.

If the rally continues, the next targets would be $5,065 (Fibonacci projection), $5,100 (round number), and $5,182 (Fibonacci projection).

Res: 5000; 5065; 5100; 5182
Sup: 4944; 4900; 4834; 4800