Gold – bulls pause briefly below the new record high

Gold surged past the $4100 barrier on Tuesday, reaching a new all-time high at $4179 and now testing the next key psychological resistance at $4200.

The latest escalation in the US–China trade conflict, following reciprocal special taxes on shipping, added to the powerful mix of bullish drivers that continue to push precious metals to fresh record highs almost daily.

Strong market expectations for two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end (now exceeding 90%), combined with an increasingly fragile geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop and rising political tensions across several advanced economies, continue to fuel strong safe-haven demand, offsetting the potentially calming impact of the recent Middle East peace accord.

After hitting the new record, prices eased slightly but remain above the $4100 level, which has now turned into initial support, maintaining a firm bullish bias and suggesting that any corrective moves may be limited before buyers regain full control.

However, the long upper shadow on Tuesday’s daily candle may serve as an early warning signal that requires confirmation, with the first sign of weakness likely to emerge on a sustained break below $4100, though daily indicators still point north.

Traders will be closely watching the $4100 level for clearer direction — a break below would open the way for short-term consolidation or a shallow correction, provided fundamentals remain unchanged.

Conversely, if dips continue to hold above $4100, it would signal fresh positioning for another leg higher into uncharted territory, with a clear break above $4200 expected to expose the next target at $4258, corresponding to the 300% Fibonacci projection of the rally from $3120 (mid-May higher low).

Res: 4150; 4179; 4200; 4258
Sup: 4111; 4100; 4059; 4000