GBP/USD – Key support zone under pressure ahead of US-UK trade deal announcement and BOE rate decision

Cable remained in the red on Thursday, testing a critical support zone after giving up a 0.5% overnight gain that followed news of a potential US-UK trade deal. The initial optimism quickly faded, putting pressure back on the pair.

U.S. President Trump is expected to announce details of an initial trade agreement with the UK later today, which could serve as a foundation for further negotiations.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet today, with widespread expectations of a 0.25% rate cut.

The overall outlook appears slightly more positive, as fading uncertainty around U.S. tariffs, lower energy prices, and an improved inflation outlook could provide the BOE with more flexibility.

The daily chart remains mostly bullish as long as the price action stays above the 1.3250 area, which marks the floor of the recent range and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2708–1.3444 upward move. Multiple recent attempts to break this support have been unsuccessful.

However, caution is warranted as the falling 14-day momentum, nearing negative territory, could signal renewed pressure on key supports. A decisive break below the 1.3270/1.3234 pivot zone would open the door for a deeper correction, with immediate targets at 1.3200 (psychological level) and 1.3161 (38.2% Fibonacci level / 30-day moving average).

On the other hand, maintaining support above the recent range floor would suggest continued sideways movement, albeit with a bearish tilt as long as the price remains in the lower half of the range and below the daily Tenkan-sen (1.3351).

Res: 1.3295; 1.3351; 1.3402; 1.3444
Sup: 1.3232; 1.3200; 1.3163; 1.3100