EURUSD climbs to fresh 2025 highs, lifted by sustained demand on dovish Fed outlook

EURUSD extended its advance on Tuesday, benefiting from persistent dollar weakness and accelerating to fresh 2025 highs, despite a brief and shallow dip following stronger-than-expected US retail sales and industrial production figures.

The rally was underpinned by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a dovish stance after Wednesday’s widely anticipated rate cut. Policymakers have already emphasized that supporting the softening labor market through policy easing takes precedence over still-elevated inflation, which they continue to view as transitory, arguing that current monetary conditions remain sufficiently restrictive to contain price pressures.

Technical studies maintain a firmly bullish structure, with strengthening momentum and moving averages aligned in full bullish mode, reinforcing the constructive outlook.

The break above the previous 2025 peak at 1.1830 signals continuation of the broader uptrend from the 2025 low at 1.0177, which paused during the 1.1830–1.1391 correction between July 1 and August 1. A sustained move above 1.1830 would further validate this scenario and open the way towards 1.1935 (Fibo 123.6% projection), 1.2000 (psychological / Fibo 138.2%) and 1.2019 (bear-trendline drawn from the 2018 and 2021 tops).

Res: 1.1900; 1.1935; 1.2000; 1.2019
Sup: 1.1830; 1.1780; 1.1757; 1.1726