EURUSD – bullish momentum meets resistance near the base of a descending and thickening daily cloud, limiting further upside progress

The Euro eased on Friday, suggesting that the strong four-day rally may be showing early signs of exhaustion as it approaches a key technical barrier at 1.1722, corresponding to the base of a declining and thickening daily Ichimoku cloud.

Bulls had earlier managed to break through the strong resistance zone at 1.1667/1.1697, which includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2082/1.1410 decline along with a convergence of the 200-, 100-, and 55-day moving averages. This breakout came on the second attempt after Wednesday’s advance was rejected, forming a candle with a long upper shadow.

However, weakening bullish momentum and overbought stochastic readings are beginning to signal potential fatigue, although a clearer bearish signal would require additional downside follow-through, particularly a sustained break back below the moving averages and the previously breached 38.2% Fibonacci level.

In the near term, the bullish bias remains intact as long as price holds above the key moving averages, or at minimum stays above the 1.1667 support area aligned with the Fibonacci level and 200DMA. Nevertheless, rising resistance from the descending daily cloud should be closely monitored.

Market focus will remain on price action around this zone, with a successful break through the cloud and a move above 1.1746 (50% retracement) needed to neutralize immediate downside risks and reinforce expectations of continued upside momentum.

Traders will also be watching developments in US–Iran peace talks, along with the upcoming release of US March CPI data, as markets anticipate potential inflation pressures linked to the ongoing geopolitical situation.

Res: 1.1722; 1.1746; 1.1800; 1.1826
Sup: 1.1688; 1.1667; 1.1640; 1.1585