EUR/USD Remains Within Extended Consolidation Range, but Bears Maintain Control
EUR/USD remains biased to the downside as near-term price action stays within an extended consolidation range above the 13-month low of 1.0495. The upside is capped by strong resistance at the 1.0600 zone, which includes the April 16 low, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0936 to 1.0495, and the declining 10-day moving average.
The negative momentum on the 14-day indicator and a fully bearish setup on the daily moving averages support the bearish outlook, with selling opportunities expected as long as price rallies are capped near the 1.0600 zone.
A firm break below 1.0495 would target the next support levels at 1.0448 (the October 3, 2023 low) and 1.0405 (the 50% retracement of the 0.9535 to 1.1275 move).
On the other hand, a move above 1.0600 would ease the downside pressure, but a sustained break above the double Fibonacci resistance at 1.0665 (23.6% of 1.1214/1.0495 and 38.2% of 1.0936/1.0495) would be needed to confirm an initial bullish signal.
Fundamentals remain negative for the euro, with the Trump trade continuing to strengthen the dollar, while geopolitical uncertainty weighs on market sentiment.
Attention is now turning to Friday’s Eurozone PMI data release (Manufacturing November forecast at 46.0 and Services at 51.6, both expected to remain unchanged from the previous month). A deviation from consensus could provide fresh directional signals.
Res: 1.0557; 1.0600; 1.0665; 1.0700
Sup: 1.0495; 1.0448; 1.0405; 1.0290
