EUR/USD – Bears Encounter Resistance at Pivotal Fibonacci Support

EUR/USD extended its pullback from a multi-month high of 1.0948, breaching pivotal supports at 1.0840/33 (38.2% Fibo retracement of 1.0666/1.0948 / 20DMA), but is struggling to make a decisive break lower.

Oversold conditions on the daily chart are providing resistance to further declines, suggesting that bears may pause as the market awaits the release of US July PMI data later today.

Traders are also focused on the US Q2 GDP data due on Thursday and June PCE data on Friday for more insights into the state of the economy and inflation—key factors influencing the Fed’s decision on the start of a rate-cutting cycle.

A limited recovery should offer better selling opportunities for an extension towards 1.0807/00 (daily Kijun-sen / psychological level) and 1.0788 (top of the thinning daily cloud).

Only a lift and close above the daily Tenkan-sen (1.0886) would sideline the bears, signaling a potential bear-trap completion and reversal.

Resistance levels: 1.0861; 1.0886; 1.0902; 1.0948
Support levels: 1.0840; 1.0825; 1.0807; 1.0788