Dollar Index – Maintains Bullish Bias Above Key 100 Level

The dollar index eased slightly on Friday after reaching a one-month high but maintained a constructive tone, as the recent bullish momentum broke through and stabilized above the key psychological level of 100, which had repeatedly acted as resistance over the past three weeks.

The index is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, strengthening expectations of a potential stronger recovery. This positive outlook is supported by profit-taking following a sharp three-month decline and a brighter economic outlook fueled by recent U.S. trade agreements with several major economies and signals of ongoing negotiations with China.

Additional support comes from recent comments by U.S. policymakers indicating that persistent uncertainty may delay expectations for rate cuts in the coming months.

Technically, the dollar’s rebound is underpinned by a bear trap pattern on the weekly chart (below 98.92 Fibonacci support), alongside improving indicators on the daily chart. Positive momentum is strengthening, and the 10-day and 20-day moving averages have shifted into a bullish setup, forming a bullish crossover. However, further gains are needed to fully confirm these positive signals.

A weekly close above the 100 mark (a psychological level and near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 104.30/97.65 decline) is seen as the minimum condition to maintain a bullish outlook. A sustained rise above 100.97 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would further validate the bullish scenario.

Res: 100.69; 100.97; 101.76; 102.00

Sup: 100.19; 100.00; 99.22; 98.85