Dollar index holds steady in subdued trading ahead of key Fed policy decision

The dollar index’s recovery from the 98.70 daily higher base (bottom of pullback from the 100.32 peak) slowed on Wednesday as traders awaited the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting.

Markets largely expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, though attention is focused on guidance regarding the central bank’s rate path in the coming months. The Fed’s September projections signaled two rate cuts in 2026, raising the key question of whether policymakers will maintain the current agenda or adopt a more dovish stance, potentially signaling stronger easing—a scenario favored by President Trump, who is in the process of selecting Jerome Powell’s successor ahead of his early-2026 departure.

While the 25-basis-point cut is unlikely to be the main market driver, any unexpected move from the Fed could trigger significant volatility. A more dovish-than-expected Fed would likely weigh on the dollar and lift gold, whereas a hawkish tone would produce the opposite effect.

Technically, the daily chart presents a mixed picture. The rising thick daily cloud supports the index, but strengthening bearish momentum offsets the positive influence. Meanwhile, moving averages remain in a mixed setup, with immediate action capped by the converging 10/200DMAs for the second consecutive day.

Res: 99.30; 99.51; 99.70; 100.00
Sup: 98.90; 98.70; 98.60; 98.31