Dollar Index – Bulls Stay Supported by Strong Safe-Haven Demand, Break Above Key $100 Resistance Zone
The US dollar maintains a firm tone and remains on track to register a second consecutive week of strong gains, benefiting from its role as a primary safe-haven asset amid rising global risk aversion.
The surge in oil prices triggered by the escalating conflict in the Middle East is increasing concerns about a renewed rise in inflation, which is also lending support to the greenback. Under such conditions, the Federal Reserve may be less inclined to implement the rate cuts that were previously expected, with policymakers more likely to maintain current rates or potentially consider additional tightening.
Friday’s rally — with the index advancing nearly 0.7% by mid-US session — pushed the Dollar Index above key barriers in the $100 zone, including the former top at $99.64 and the psychological $100 level. The advance also broke through the upper boundary of the bullish channel that began at $95.35, located near $100.23, and surpassed the 2025 peak at $100.32. This move followed a decisive break through the thick descending weekly Ichimoku cloud, whose base stood at $99.28.
A sustained close above these levels would confirm a fresh bullish reversal signal and open the way for a broader recovery within the larger $110.00–$95.35 downtrend, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $100.94 emerging as the next important resistance.
Technical indicators on the daily chart remain supportive, with bullish crosses of the 10- and 100-day moving averages as well as the 20- and 200-day averages, accompanied by strong positive momentum. However, overbought conditions are beginning to develop and may prompt temporary consolidation.
On the downside, the broken $100 level now acts as immediate support, while deeper pullbacks are expected to find stronger footing in the $99.60–$99.30 zone, which should ideally contain declines and preserve the broader bullish structure.
Res: 100.50; 100.94; 101.25; 101.71
Sup: 100.00; 99.60; 99.30; 99.09
