Dollar Index – bulls may pause for consolidation after breaking key resistance levels at the psychological 100 mark and the nearby falling 200DMA

The dollar index maintains a firm tone, supported by renewed risk aversion, and managed to break above the key psychological level of 100 — which also marks the former August 1 top — along with the nearby falling 200-day moving average at 100.15 on Wednesday.

The greenback gained additional strength after Fed Chair Powell delivered remarks that were more hawkish than expected, dampening market optimism for another rate cut in December.

The continued absence of key labor data for the second consecutive month, due to the U.S. government shutdown, reinforced the Fed’s cautious stance toward monetary policy, leading market participants to scale back expectations for a December rate cut from 92% to 75%.

Meanwhile, the only available report — the ADP private sector payrolls — showed stronger-than-expected figures for October, offering a glimmer of optimism about labor market resilience and further supporting reduced expectations for an imminent policy easing.

A sustained break above the current resistance zone would confirm a fresh bullish signal and reinforce the strong technical structure on the daily chart. However, overbought conditions suggest that bulls may encounter headwinds at this area, prompting a possible pause for consolidation or a shallow correction.

Any potential pullback is expected to find solid support above the 99.30/20 area (former top / 10DMA), keeping the bullish outlook intact and offering better entry opportunities for renewed long positions.

Res: 100.18; 100.40; 100.74; 101.10
Sup: 99.87; 99.53 99.20; 99.05