Dollar extends rally as diminishing ceasefire hopes drive renewed risk aversion

The US dollar maintained a firm tone and extended its gains against major peers on Thursday, supported by a rebound in oil prices — with Brent climbing back above $100 — which triggered a fresh wave of risk aversion and boosted demand for the safe-haven greenback.

Diminishing hopes for a ceasefire, following the initial optimism that drove the dollar index more than 10% lower on Monday, have helped revive bullish sentiment. The index continues to trade within a broader ascending channel, as pullbacks from the 2026 peak at $100.26 — after failing to sustain a break above the $100 threshold — have been consistently contained by the rising channel support.

Technical indicators on the daily chart remain firmly bullish, with multiple moving average bull-crosses, strengthening upside momentum, and the latest rally pushing above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $100.26/$98.63 decline, all reinforcing a positive near-term outlook.

Bulls are now targeting another attempt at the psychological $100 barrier, following previous failures in July and November 2025, as well as March 2026. A sustained break above this level would confirm the formation of a broader base on weekly and monthly charts, signal a breakout from the multi-month range between $95.30 and $100.30, and open the way toward initial targets at $100.95 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the $110.00/$95.35 decline) and $101.80 (May 2025 high).

The near-term bias is expected to remain bullish as long as price action holds above the strong support zone at $99, which is reinforced by the lower boundary of the bull channel and the base of the weekly Ichimoku cloud.

Res: 100.00; 100.32; 100.94; 101.49
Sup: 99.43; 99.00; 98.63; 98.42