AUDUSD – consolidating above a three-month low, with potential for further downside; focus shifts to US CPI data

AUDUSD remains under pressure for the fourth consecutive day, though Wednesday’s decline slowed, with trading confined to a narrow range just above a three-month low.

Daily technical indicators remain bearish, supporting further downside potential, but oversold conditions suggest consolidation may come before another move lower. The broken daily Tenkan-sen at 0.6600 is expected to cap any upticks, setting up for a fresh push towards the 0.6488 Fibo support (76.4% of 0.6348/0.6942).

A firm break above the daily Kijun-sen and cloud base (0.6637/45) would temporarily shift the bearish outlook.

Fundamentally, today’s movements are expected to hinge on economic data. Australian wage growth slowed in Q3 to the lowest in almost two years, though it may not significantly affect the RBA’s rate outlook. The focus now shifts to the upcoming US CPI report (Oct y/y forecast at 2.6% vs Sep 2.4%; core Oct 3.3% forecast, unchanged from Sep), which could be a key driver, along with Australia’s October labor report, due early Thursday.

Res: 0.6537; 0.6575; 0.6600; 0.6637
Sup: 0.6512; 0.6488; 0.6400; 0.6348