AUDUSD – bearish momentum pauses, but a clearer directional signal is anticipated with a breakout on either side of the daily Ichimoku cloud

AUDUSD edged higher on Thursday morning after bears repeatedly failed to break through the 200-day moving average support at 0.6627.

The recovery is in its early stages and requires further upside movement to confirm a stronger bullish signal, though the near-term outlook remains constructive as long as the price stays above the 200DMA.

Repeated daily closes above this level would raise hopes for a more robust recovery, with a close above the 200DMA on Friday potentially completing a bear trap on the weekly chart, opening the door for a stronger rebound. However, key resistance levels such as the 100DMA at 0.6794 and the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 0.6707 present strong hurdles where the recovery rally could face significant headwinds.

Daily technical indicators remain bearish, with moving averages predominantly in a bearish configuration, and 14-day momentum, though turning upward, still deeply in negative territory. This suggests that the correction may be limited before larger bearish forces regain control.

A clearer directional signal is expected on a break of either boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud, with the base at 0.6593 and the top at 0.6707.

Res: 0.6670; 0.6694; 0.6707; 0.6739
Sup: 0.6627; 0.6593; 0.6575; 0.6563