AUD/USD continues to climb ahead of the FOMC minutes and Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

AUD/USD climbed to its highest level in nearly a month on Monday, building on Friday’s 0.9% gain and a 1.5% rise last week.

The pair is now in its third consecutive week of strong gains, with the recent acceleration driven by renewed risk appetite and growing expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, including speculation of a 50 basis point cut.

Investors are still awaiting more clarity from key events this week, including the release of the FOMC July meeting minutes and Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which could provide more insight into the Fed’s next moves.

A widely anticipated dovish stance from the Fed would likely weaken the U.S. dollar further, though there is a possibility that Powell’s comments could be less dovish than expected, potentially offering fresh support to the dollar.

Monday’s rally broke through the Fibonacci resistance at 0.6692 (76.4% retracement of the 0.6798 to 0.6348 downtrend) and tested the critical resistance at 0.6701 (daily cloud top).

A sustained break above this level could pave the way for a move toward the target at 0.6798 (the 2024 high set on July 11).

However, overbought daily indicators may slow the bullish momentum, with any dips likely finding support at the 55-day moving average at 0.6638, offering better entry points for buyers.

Res: 0.6714; 0.6750; 0.6798; 0.6839
Sup: 0.6653; 0.6638; 0.6600; 0.6570